July 10, 2026

Bayes Theorem On Trial

Only one Christian believer I know who used Bayes, went from 60% probability to 50% to 25% probability. He still believes because after all, it's faith. All other Christians who use Bayes end with their probabilities well into the probability zone, some as high as 95%!

That's what I see. All but one Christian who utilizes Bayes comes away with a high probability Jesus arose from the dead, or that Christianity is true, or that God exists.

On the surface Bayes only helps the believer confirm his or her faith. Bayes ought to help believers re-think their faith but it does no such thing.

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