Debunking Christianity
July 24, 2026
Every Human Is Born Into a Vast Bubble of Ignorance
July 23, 2026
Why Didn't David Hume Respond Upon Knowing Bayes Theorem?
As an author I've published a great many blog posts, papers, and books about a whole lot of issues; a small encyclopedia of them, if you will. The more that one publishes the more of a context informed readers have for understanding an author on a separate issue. So let's consider the relevant books of David Hume, apart from his History of England which was a massively influential six-volume historical work that thrust him into fame. Let's see if there's a reason he didn't respond to Bayes Theorem. (In what follows A.I. insisted that I let her help a bit.)
A Treatise of Human Nature was published in London in multiple volumes between 1739 and 1740. Together it was Hume’s most comprehensive philosophical work. It breaks down the origins of human knowledge, ideas, cause and effect, personal identity, the passions, and morality.
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748). A more accessible, revised version of the first book of the Treatise. It specifically addresses skepticism, our understanding of cause and effect, free will, and the critique of miracles. Thomas Bayes’s work on probability appeared posthumously in 1763. His friend Richard Price discovered the manuscript and published it posthumously in 1767 along with his explanation of Bayesian methods for assessing miracles. We know Hume read Price's paper and liked it. But Hume neither addressed Bayesian arguments nor revised his account of miracles for the 1768 and 1777 editions of his Enquiry.
An Enquiry Concerning the Principles of Morals (1751): Hume’s dedicated work on ethics. By relying on empirical observations of human nature rather than abstract religious or rationalist dogmas, Hume presents morality as a practical, natural tool designed by humans to foster social harmony and mutual well-being.
The Natural History of Religion (1757). Hume treats religious history as a natural, secular phenomenon, fundamentally undermining the belief that religion is inherently rooted in reason or divine revelation.
Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion (1779). His last book published posthumanously. It explores the psychological and sociological origins of religious belief, arguing that religion stems not from rational contemplation or innate knowledge of God, but from the emotional drives of human nature, primarily fear, anxiety, and the desire for security.
July 21, 2026
An Excerpt from My 2019 Book, "The Case against Miracles"
David Hume’s arguments against miracles succeed despite the fact he didn’t use Bayes’ Theorem. William Vanderburg briefly addresses this issue in his article for Hume Studies.[1] He shows Hume was aware of Bayes’ Theorem but didn’t think he needed it to make his argument.
Earman chastises Hume for being unaware of Bayesianism and of mathematical probability generally. This is unfair on two counts. First, Bayes’s work on probability was not widely known in 1748 when Hume published the first edition of the Enquiry. Richard Price arranged the posthumous publication of Bayes’s essay only in 1763, and it remained obscure even after its publication; Price’s paper applying Bayesian methods to the evidence for miracles appeared in 1767. We know Hume read and admired that paper, but he neither addressed Bayesian arguments nor revised his account of miracles for the 1768 and 1777 editions of the Enquiry. This suggests that Hume ultimately did not view Bayes’s work as relevant to the argument against miracles. Second, Hume’s discussion of the probability of chances “shows without controversy that he was familiar with the basic concepts of probability based on the calculus of chances.” Given Hume’s familiarity with Pascalian probability in general, and his acquaintance (through Price) with Bayesian ideas, his non-numerical treatment of the evidential probability of miracles must be seen as a deliberate philosophical position, not as a result of negligence or ignorance.[2]
What Hume is aiming at is seen in his general maxim: “Therefore we may establish it as a maxim, that no human testimony can have such force as to prove a miracle, and make it a just foundation for any such system of religion.” His twofold contention is not only that mere testimonial evidence for a miracle is insufficient for believing in a miracle, but also that miracles cannot be an adequate foundation for a religion. Hume is undercutting miracles and any religion born of miracles in one fell swoop. Going for the jugular vein of miracles does all the work, for it also deals a death blow to the religion of any miracle working god.
If miracles are the foundation for a religion, then an apologist for that religion cannot bring up a miracle working god to establish his supposed miracles. For miracles are supposed to be the basis for the religion and its miracle working god. One cannot reason backwards from the existence of their god to the miracle testimonies in the Bible. For the issue is whether the god of these miracles exists in the first place.
July 20, 2026
Don McIntosh Responds: "Reaffirming Belief in Miracles: A Brief Rebuttal to Loftus"
In a hard-hitting and comprehensive reply to a previous paper by Don McIntosh defending the rationality of belief in miracles, John Loftus argued that McIntosh’s defenses are ultimately self-defeating: his denial of laws of nature in particular, coupled with his religious definition of miracles as “signs and wonders,” would leave no way to distinguish miracles from very rare but natural occurrences. In turn that would leave no way to discern true from false miracle claims, including the ancient and unverifiable claims in the Bible made by credulous and superstitious people. In this brief rebuttal McIntosh pushes back against Loftus’ arguments affirming inductive reasoning and the laws of nature/science, as well as his arguments against the divine creation of life, predictive prophecy, and miracles in the Gospels. McIntosh concludes that in light of the relevant information available, belief in a miracle-working God is rationally justified.You can find it at The Secular Web. I don't care that much to respond. Perhaps my readers would want to do that?
July 19, 2026
On Resurrecting David Hume From the Dead!
Since Christians are convinced Hume’s arguments against miracles have been “refuted” (per William Lane Craig in a personal conversation), some atheists are trying to reach out to Christians by avoiding Hume entirely. Benjamin Blake Speed Watkins, who Hosts and Produces Real Atheology – A Philosophy of Religion Podcast, is one of them. He said, “I see arguments against miracles as separate from Hume. We can have substantive discussion without ever appealing to him.” Now this can be done, I don’t doubt. But I don’t see the need to do it. I also think we should give credit where credit is due. I can’t imagine ignoring David Hume, the philosopher who originally put the issue of miracles up for discussion, like no other had done before. That would be an injustice. I understand that Christians identify the best arguments against miracles with Hume’s arguments. I also understand they think Hume’s arguments fail. So I’m not oblivious they conclude that with Hume’s demise so also goes the case against miracles. Just the same, it makes sense to defend Hume if he can be defended, and I think he can. When we do so successfully it doubly undercuts Christian apologetics. For not only do we show Hume’s arguments defeat the believability of miracles. By showing Christians are wrong about Hume, it also shows how badly they argue their case on behalf of miracles.Richard Carrier recently said I'm wrong to try, via email:
I think Hume should be dealt with much more briefly as having said something useful but centuries obsolete and thus no longer worth distracting ourselves with. That just helps theists, because they can throw up sand and argue endlessly over his choice of sentences and wording, when we could just say “why are you still talking about that, that’s centuries obsolete?” and thus pull the rug out from under that entire tactic. Force them instead to deal directly with the modern math. They will have a far harder time coming up with convoluted rhetoric to evade simple math than to make hay out of some long dead provocateur's 18th century prose.Then again:
I don’t see value in trying to fix or explain hundreds years old obsolete stuff, even when clever or historically important. That wastes a lot of energy to no point. It’s great if you are doing history of the 18th century or something. But in philosophy, the name “Hume” should have no value argumentatively. So I think it’s pointless to try and fix “him.” Forget him. We have the benefit of two hundred plus years of scientific, logical, and mathematical advances since. We should just formulate the correct argument and be done with it. His name never need be mentioned; and mentioning it is just a distraction that triggers the howling monkeys of Christian apologetics. Make them confront the correct argument, rather than waste time arguing over what Hume’s centuries-old selection of words meant. Which fits into my ideal principle: never give a Christian an opening to derail a conversation by arguing over irrelevant trivia instead of the actual point being made. Try to prevent rather than facilitate that. It’s hard. But it should be the best aim.From the outset, just to be sure, I have argued against miracles without depending on Hume. I mentioned him twice in two papers with just one link each. I did so for The Secular Web. One is titled, Hail Mary: Was Virgin Mary Truly the Mother of God’s Son?, and another one is titled, Assessing McIntosh’s Sophisticated Defense of Miracles.
July 18, 2026
How Can Belief in a Smart, Loving God Survive a Thoughtful Reading of Genesis 1-11 ???
William Vanderburgh On "Hume’s 'Abject Failure' Vindicated"
July 17, 2026
David Hume “Of Miracles” and Religions (#97-100) with Notes by John W. Loftus
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Hume’s target was the Christian religion with its miracles. He argued against the probability of human testimony on behalf of miracles focusing on the Christian religion with its miracle claims. The root word “relig” with its endings (-ion –ions -ious –ionist) occurs twenty times in this chapter].
Below are a few paragraphs from the end of Hume's chapter (#97-100) with notes.
July 16, 2026
Don McIntosh Responds: "Reaffirming Belief in Miracles: A Brief Rebuttal to Loftus"
From the title it's clear I didn't convince Don. Maybe I should have used Bayes Theorem? It should be up at "The Secular Web" by next week. He started with these kind words though:
His initial defense of miracles can be seen here: LINKIt’s an honor and pleasure to be interacting with John Loftus again, this time on the question of miracles. A well known and widely published atheist philosopher, counter-apologist, and critic of Christianity (and miracle claims in particular), Loftus has answered my 2025 article defending the rationality of belief in miracles and concluded that my arguments are inadequate to justify such a belief. In the process Loftus has managed to strike a friendly and respectful tone even while hitting back with replies that are insightful, vigorous, brutally honest and rhetorically formidable. That’s just how it should be, I think, and I will do my best to answer in kind.
My one and only rebuttal can be seen here: LINK.
July 15, 2026
One Thing More: We Don't Need No Bayes Theorem!
July 14, 2026
Bayes Theorem with Regard to Vincent Torley
That's what I see. All but one Christian who utilized Bayes comes away with a high probability that Jesus arose from the dead, or that Christianity is true, or that God exists. On the surface Bayes only helps believers confirm their faith. Bayes ought to help believers re-think their faith, but it does no such thing. Granted, not much can change the diehard believer. But my point is that there is something wrong with an allegedly helpful theorem that doesn't force more believers to change their minds [edit: or the minds of non-believers for that matter]. If using Bayes won't help them [edit: or us] why bother?
The Christian believer I mentioned is Vincent Torley. You can read his cogitations on the matter at The Skeptical Zone. Here's his conclusion:
Since my estimate of the total probability of the various Type A skeptical explanations is less than 50%, and since the posterior probability of the Resurrection is much greater than that of the various Type B explanations, belief in the Resurrection is rational, from my perspective.Later, after reading through Michael Alter's book, Resurrection: A Critical Inquiry, Torley came to calculate the probability of the resurrection of Jesus to be 20-25%. LINK But here is the rub that doesn't feel too good. Torley was not prompted to change his mind due to any Bayesian analysis since Alter doesn't use it! Alter merely hammered home a comprehensive evidential case! Checkmate Bayesians!
Based on the evidence, I estimate that there’s about a60-65%55-60% chance that Jesus rose from the dead. That means I accept that there’s a35-40%45-50% chance that my Christian faith is wrong. [Notice his lowering edits?]
However, I can understand why someone might rate the probabilities of hypotheses 3(a), 3(b) and 3(c) at 20% each, instead of 10%. For such a person, belief in the Resurrection would be irrational, since the total probability of the Type A skeptical hypotheses would exceed 50%.
Summing up: a strong case can be made for the reality of Jesus’ Resurrection. However, a responsible historian would not be justified in asserting that Jesus’ Resurrection is historically certain. As we’ve seen, such a conclusion depends, at the very least, on the claim that there is a significant likelihood that there exists a supernatural Being Who is capable of working miracles, which is something the historian cannot prove. In addition, estimates of the probabilities of rival hypotheses will vary from person to person, and there seems to be no way of deciding whose estimate is the most rational one.
July 12, 2026
There Is So Much Bad Theology, Rubbish, Goofy Folklore—Just in Genesis
July 11, 2026
A.I. On How Bayes Theroem is Best Used
July 10, 2026
Bayes Theorem On Trial
Bayes On Trial: The Problem of Bayes in a Nutshell
July 08, 2026
Bayes Theorem On Trial!
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A.I. on Bayes Theorem. I typed in these words: "Criticisms of bayes theorem theory"
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While Bayes’ Theorem is an undisputed mathematical formula, criticisms center on its application in Bayesian statistics and epistemology. The primary debates involve subjectivity in prior beliefs, methodological ambiguity, and computational/logical limitations.
1. The Subjectivity of Prior Probabilities (The Problem of the Priors). Bayes' theorem requires defining a "prior"—an initial assumption or belief about the probability of an event. Critics, particularly classical/frequentist statisticians (e.g., Fisher and Neyman), argue that because these initial beliefs are subjective, the resulting probability is also subjective, making it scientifically unreliable. If a prior is heavily biased or uninformed, it can take an excessive amount of new data to correct the final outcome.
2. Lack of Uniqueness (The Objective Bayes Dilemma). To counter subjectivity, "Objective Bayesians" use uninformative priors (representing ignorance). However, critics argue there is no single mathematically rigorous way to define a "true" state of ignorance. Depending on the mathematical method chosen, the resulting prior can inadvertently introduce hidden assumptions that distort the analysis.
3. Falsifiability and Flexibility. In scientific modeling, the sheer flexibility of Bayesian frameworks (with choices of priors, likelihoods, and utility functions) allows researchers to continuously adjust models until they achieve desired results. Critics argue this makes Bayesian theories susceptible to becoming unfalsifiable, or used to spin "just-so stories" to validate pre-existing conclusions rather than testing them objectively.
4. The Bayesian Trap and Pseudoscience. In applied settings, misinterpreting the odds or failing to seek alternative explanations can lead to over-diagnosis and confirmation bias. Practitioners can fall into the "Bayesian trap", where strong prior assumptions or repeated observations lead to a false sense of certainty, blinding the researcher to anomalies or the need for new experiments.
5. Logical Omnipotence and Unification. When applied to human reasoning or epistemology, critics point out the problem of logical omnipotence. Pure Bayesian theory assumes that a perfectly rational agent instantly assigns probabilities to all possible alternative hypotheses and knows all logical consequences of their beliefs, which is an impossible cognitive burden for actual human beings or finite computers.
6. The "Bayesian Brain" Circularity. In cognitive science, the Bayesian brain hypothesis suggests that perception and learning are based on probabilistic inferences. Critics argue this approach can be ambiguous and methodologically circular—suggesting that because a system "looks" rational, it must be using Bayesian calculations, despite a lack of neurological evidence for such complex mathematics at the process level.
June 29, 2026
Richard Carrier Recommends Three More Books of Mine!
One) Unapologetic: Why Philosophy of Religion Must End (2016).
Unapologetic is an important book to engage with, whatever you think of its thesis in the end. And being the metaphilosophy of POR, it is an essential have for any POR shelf or library.Two) God and Horrendous Suffering (2026).
What Loftus has assembled is a huge and excellent series of unique and well-sourced essays by numerous experts that supplements any discussion of the Argument from Evil (AfE). You won’t find the brilliant takes and studies and analyses in here anywhere else in one place. And it’s so good and far-reaching, it’s definitely a must-have for any library or list that you expect to cover the AfE well.Three) The Case against Miracles 2022).
It opens with a professional journal debate on the AfE between John Loftus and Don McIntosh. And then chaper-by-chapter covers every conceivable digression in solid form.
Overall, every chapter has use in boning up on why the AfE is actually a powerful argument with no credible defense yet, all from different angles of methodology and subject. All of it quite good. As with any book I can’t have vetted every fact claim in it, but at my reading, it’s generally solid, and its approaches so diverse and unique that I think God and Horrendous Suffering is an essential appendix to any fullgoing knowledge of AfE. You will get valuable information and fresh perspective from every chapter.
It’s a subject I’ve long been a specialist in, and I can vouch for the fact that there is nothing better in its category.Conclusion:
It contains a lot of great analysis from a plethora of experts, all more than sufficient to make The Case Against Miracles an essential addition to any POR library.
All three of these books get overlooked a lot, which is why I am bringing them back into view.LINK.
But as I don’t research this subject so thoroughly as to know all the best literature on every subject in so vast a heap of tinfoil as the POR, and I think PoR is a really annoying distraction anyway, I won’t be building a recommendations list in it. But if you are interested in building one...the Loftus volumes I just discussed today, plus the two items that are on my Philosophy List (Outsider Test for Faith, and Primer), make a really good—and essential—start.
June 15, 2026
An Interview on Atheist Morality
Dear Dr. Loftus,I am a secondary school student currently researching the historical change in morality and its link to the rise in secularism for a literature project. I recently read your essay about atheist morality and found it very helpful for understanding secular ethical perspectives from a young Christians view. Thank you!I was wondering if you might be willing to answer a few questions about your argument.
In your essay, you argue that morality can develop naturally through human evolution and social cooperation. Do you believe this completely rules out the possibility that morality could have a divine origin? Possibilities do not count! I have fully accounted for morality.
June 04, 2026
Why Won't William Lane Craig Debate Me? (Plus Further Comments On Horrendous Suffering).
May 21, 2026
May 09, 2026
A Minimal Facts Approach the the Problem of Evil
Visit My Page at The Secular Web!
The first one you'll see is a link to an offsite paper: Atheist Morality Without God.
This essay is a response to James Sterba's "An Ethics without God that is Compatible with Darwinian Evolution" and thoroughly provides a secular morality in that it argues that the most reasonable ethics are secular systems that don't require a God, gods, or goddesses. Loftus further goes on to defend an atheist morality by appealing to polls that show that there is a common neighborly morality that matters to most people based in facts about who we are as a species, which includes facts about the prehistoric world. Finally, Loftus argues that 'Sterbaian ethics' succeeds in that it is useful for human flourishing.My most recent paper is Assessing McIntosh's Sophisticated Defense of Miracles. Here's the abstract:
In a previous paper Don McIntosh showed an exceptional awareness of the major objections to belief in miracles. In his attempt at a comprehensive rebuttal to them, his first goal was to argue that there are no fixed, exceptionless laws of nature, and thus nothing to prevent reasonable people from accepting miracle reports from reliable witnesses. His second goal was to argue that miracles are best understood as divine activity that merely defies our expectations and so miracles are akin to “signs” and “wonders.” His final goal was to offer a positive case for miracles that doesn’t lean on human testimony, which is generally considered weak as part of a defense of belief in miracles. Here McIntosh defended three categories: (1) miracles of cosmology; (2) miracles of prophecy; and (3) miracles of experience.In this reply John W. Loftus offers a comprehensive rebuttal to McIntosh. Loftus argues that there are regularities of nature on a mega scale that can be described by many essential equations, and that this should be good enough. To deny the existence of the laws of nature raises twin problems. On the one hand, such a denial would open the flood gates to include false miracle claims in the absence of any way to check them against laws of nature. On the other hand, such denial would undercut the basis for belief in biblical miracles since it would concede that biblical authors didn’t require solid evidence for their occurrence. Loftus goes on to argue that this is exactly what we find in the Bible—unevidenced, superstitious miracle stories. Finally, he concludes that McIntosh’s miracles of cosmology are based on a kind of ignorance, as are the alleged Hebrew Bible prophecies of the promised land, and McIntosh’s conclusions from his own personal testimony.
In this paper I canvass a variety of ideas throughout the Christian Bible that make no sense at all. These include God's unembodiment, timelessness, foreknowledge, and human characteristics like longing and tribalism, as well as the idea of divine inspiration, the Trinity, the existence of Satan, the Incarnation, the Atonement, the Resurrection, the Ascension, Heaven and Hell, punishment for sin, the task of evangelism, and the need for apologetics. These epitomize what Jeremy Bentham famously called nonsense upon stilts.
May 08, 2026
Why I Abandoned Christianity, Part 2
[The link to Part 1 is here.]
3. The Bible is a mess: flaws, contradictions, and too much bad theology.
How can I say such a thing? From the time they were toddlers, the devout have been taught that the Bible is the revealed word of their god. A gleaming version of it is commonly on church altars. Witnesses in court—and presidents at their inaugurations—place their hands on the Bible to verify that they are taking a sacred oath. But does this reputation prevail when the devout actually read and study the Bible? Determination to read it cover-to-cover often fades once that journey has begun; the first five books, Genesis, Exodus, Leviticus, Numbers, and Deuteronomy, provide plenty of tedious texts to discourage modern, educated readers.
May 07, 2026
I Highly Recommend the book, "The Ancient Moon Goddess: Crushed by Patriarchy Buried by Judaism Hidden in Christianity"
May 04, 2026
May 03, 2026
A Comprehensive Paper Defending Miracles
My response will be posted at the end of May on the Secular Web. I've already written it, as seen in the pic. I wrote a comprehensive rebuttal. :-)
May 01, 2026
Why I Abandoned Christianity, Part 1
1. The Arrogance of Theology
I grew up on the very flat prairie of northern Indiana: the land was level to the horizon in all directions. Which meant that we had, on clear nights, a spectacular view of the night sky—with very little light pollution from Chicago, some eighty miles to the north. When I was a teenager in the 1950s, my parents bought me a telescope, about the since of a baseball bat. I was able to locate Saturn with its rings—what a thrill that was! But I came to appreciate that the rotation of the earth is a reality, because while I was viewing the moon, I had to keep moving the telescope because I was on the surface of a rotating planet. When I attended college, I took astronomy courses, because my curiosity was intense: what is out there, who may be out there?







